描述岩土工程模型不确定性特征的贝叶斯方法电子书籍txtpdf网盘下载网站

内容概要

As any model is only an abstrtion of
the real world, model uncertainty always exists* Ingeotechnical
engineering, the model uncertainty could be large* Lk of
knowledge about modeluncertainty may lead to unrealistic
predictions* When bk analysis from observed performances,model
uncertainty is often mixed with parameter uncertainty and
observational uncertainty* Hence itis generally difficult to
isolate and charterize model uncertainty* This book introduces
the state-of-the-art theories and methodologies for geotechnical
model uncertainty charterization based on theBayesian theory,
including both rigorous solution and approximate but prtical
solutions, where theeffects of parameter uncertainty and
observational uncertainty on model uncertainty charterizationare
appropriately addressed* The theories and methodologies are
illustrated in detail with variousgeotechnical problems* The book
will be of general interest to readers in the profession
andparticularly useful for the specializing in geotechnical
inverse analysis and geotechnical reliability*

书籍目录

Prefe
Chapter 1 Introduction
1*1 Bkground
1*2 Objective and Scope
1*3 Organization of the Book
Chapter 2 Literature Review
2*1 Within-System Charterization
2*1*1 Least Square Method
2*1*2 Maximum Likelihood Method
2*1*3 Bayesian Method
2*1*4 Extended Bayesian Method
2*1*5 Model Comparison and Multi-model Inference
2*2 Crs System Charterization
2*3 Bayesian Method and Computational Techniques
2*3*1 Maximum Pterior Density Method
2*3*2 First order Second moment Bayesian Method (FSBM)
2*3*3 Laple Method
2*3*4 System Identification Method
2*3*5 Sampling Based Methods
2*4 Summary
Chapter 3 Bayesian Framework for Charterizing Model Uncertainty
3*1 Parameter, Model, and Observation Uncertainties
3*2 Bayesian Estimation of Model Uncertainty
3*2*1 Extension to Multiplicative Model Correction Ftor
3*2*2 Extension to Censored Observed Data
3*2*3 Extension to Model Correction Functions
3*3 Charteristics of Crs System Model Uncertainty
Charterization
3*3*1 Role of Prior Information
3*3*2 Interpretation of Determined Model Uncertainty
3*4 Assignment of Prior Uncertainties
3*4*1 General Guidelines for Determining f(xi)
3*4*2 Prior Distribution for Model Uncertainty Parameters
3*5 Decision Involved in Model Uncertainty Charterization
3*5*1 Selection of Model Correction Ftors
3*5*2 Use of Model Correction Function
3*6 Prediction of System Responses
3*7 Psible Solutions to the Bayesian Framework
3*8 Summary
Chapter 4 Simplified Bayesian Framework for Charterizing Model
Uncertainty
4*1 Introduction
4*2 Approximate Formulation for Charterizing Model Uncertainty
4*3 Discussion of Prior Distributions on Model Uncertainty
Parameters
4*4 Charterizing Model Uncertainty based on the Approximate
Formulation
4*4*1 Maximum Pterior Density Method
4*4*2 Grid Calculation Method
4*4*3 MCMC Simulation
4*5 Comparison of Model Uncertainty Ftors
4*5*1 Spreadsheet Method
4*5*2 Grid Calculation Method
4*6 Approximate Prediction of System Response
4*7 Extension to Model Correction Functions
4*8 An Illustration Example
4*8*1 Bkground
4*8*2 Prior Knowledge in Model Uncertainty Parameters
4*8*3 Test Uncertainty
4*8*4 Calculation of μG(x) and σG(x)
4*8*5 Spreadsheet Implementation of the Maximum Pterior
Method
4*8*6 Comparison of Methods for Model Uncertainty
Charterization
4*9 Summary
Chapter 5 Efficient Markov Chain for Identifying Geoteehnieal
Model Uncertainty
5*1 Introduction
5*2 Study of Efficient Markov Chain for Charterizing Model
Uncertainty
5*2*1 Markov Chains under Investigation
5*2*2 Comparison of Markov Chains
5*3 Hybrid Markov Chain for Model Uncertainty Charterization
in the Original Bayesian Framework
5*3*1 Structure of the Hybrid Markov Chain
5*3*2 Determination of the Jumping Functions
5*3*3 Check of Convergence
5*4 Application to the Slope Stability Model Example
5*4*1 Performance of the Markov Chain
5*4*2 Check of Convergence
5*4*3 Pterior Distributions
5*4*4 Aury of Approximate Methods
5*5 Extension to Model Correction Function Calibration
5*6 Summary
Chapter 6 Probabilistic Bk-Analysis of Slope Failure
6*1 Introduction
6*2 Further Study on Model Uncertainty of Limit Equilibrium
Methods
6*2*1 Effect of Test Uncertainty
6*2*2 Effect of Quality of Test Data
6*2*3 Effect of Amount of Test Data
6*3 Bk Analysis of Slope Failure with Unknown Model
Uncertainty
6*3*1 Bayesian Formulation
6*3*2 MCMC Simulation
6*3*3 Response Surfe Approximation
6*3*4 Illustrative Example
6*4 Bk Analysis of Slope Failure with Known Model Uncertainty
6*4*1 Theory of Bk Analysis with Known Model Uncertainty
6*4*2 Step-by-step Implementation
6*4*3 Reanalysis of Shek Kip Mei Landslide
6*5 Summary
Chapter 7 Reliability Based Design of Pile Foundation
7*1 Introduction
7*2 Problem Description
7*3 Model Uncertainty Charterization
7*3*1 Model Uncertainty Charterization Using Approximate
Methods
7*3*2 Model Uncertainty Charterization in the Original
Bayesian Framework
7*3*3 Comparison of Results
7*3*4 Effect of Data Censoring on Model Uncertainty
Charterization
7*3*5 Role of Model Uncertainty in Pile Capity Prediction
7*4 Comparison of Probabilistic Models for Model Uncertainty
Charterization
7*4*1 Use of Additive Model Correction Ftor
7*4*2 Use of Model Correction Functions
7*5 Reliability Based Design of Pile Foundations
7*5*1 Design Point Method
7*5*2 Application to Pile Capity Model
7*5*3 Adjustment in Consideration of Structural Codes
7*5*4 Regression Analyses of Partial Ftors
7*6 Reliability Based Design with Effective Stress Approh
7*7 Comparison of the SPT Method and Effective Stress Method
7*8 Summary
Chapter 8 Charterizing the Model Uncertainty of a Liqueftion
Model
8*1 Introduction
8*2 Problem Description
8*2*1 Liqueftion Model under Investigation
8*2*2 Calibration Database
8*2*3 Parameter Uncertainty
8*3 Determination of Model Uncertainty
8*3*1 Bayesian Formulation
8*3*2 Choice-based Sampling Bias
8*3*3 Prior Probabilistic Analysis of Liqueftion Data
8*3*4 Calibration Results
8*3*5 Role of Model Uncertainty in Liqueftion Potential
Evaluation
8*3*6 Determination of Target Ftor of Safety
8*4 Summary
Appendix A
Appendix B
References

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